My key figures from the Uganda National Budget 2026/27

So much of the Budget analysis, both by the government and its stakeholders, focuses on 'hoped-for goals' given the numbers attached to different components in the National Budget. Very little attention is paid to the real, immediate trade-offs that come with the National Budget. Fortunately, every year I look forward to highlighting my key figures from the National Budget.

In brief, it highlights a huge appetite for spending by the central government, a rising tax burden on citizens through increases in existing tax rates and the introduction of new ones, particularly expenditure taxes that are regressive. Another implication is that Uganda isn't yet managing the national debt, adding a new stock of debt over 23 trillion. Service delivery is also being squeezed out of proportion by greater commitment to debt servicing and ever-increasing administrative costs of a fast-growing government size.

Here are my key figures from the National Budget for FY 2026/27.

1. 84.39 trillion, an overall total significantly increasing from the previous 72 trillions. This portrays the spending levels required to grow the economy nominally to USD 500 billion by 2040.

2. 40.16 trillion, of tax contribution. This will be mobilized (evidently) by raising some existing taxes and by introducing new taxes. This reflects increase in the tax burden on Ugandans and business. Projections for the coming few financial years indicate a similar trend.

3. 11.97 trillions and 11.27 trillions, for domestic borrowing and external project financing to finance the budget deficit. These together will add a net stock of new debt of over 23 trillion.

4. 33.4 trillion, nearly 40% of that will be spent on debt servicing, not service delivery.

5. Out of 7.17 trillion for local government, 58.8%, the larger percent will be received to cater for wages. The smaller percent will be devoted to service delivery.