April 2026 - Money updates across the African continent

 

Dear monetary economists,

Every month, I provide charts and pointers on the money situation, particularly through a broad money monetarist lens, focusing on selected African nations. This April update continues the series, covering South Africa, Egypt, Nigeria, and the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA), and concludes with Uganda.

As in March, the monetary picture remains dynamic: Egypt’s money growth remains elevated; Nigeria’s growth has collapsed to unusually low levels; South Africa’s growth is running above its optimal benchmark; UEMOA shows volatility but supportive conditions; and Uganda’s growth remains strong and above optimal.

South Africa

As of the latest April 2026 figures, the annualized M3 growth rate stands at 9.0% y/y, continuing the acceleration seen in March (9.0% y/y, the highest since June 2022). The three-month annualized rate showed marked volatility, nearly doubling from 8.2% y/y in March to 14.1% y/y in April, indicating sustained momentum in underlying money growth.

This rise in broad money is reflected in the expansion of net Domestic Credit to the government sector, which rose to ZAR 978,528 million. While the current rate of money growth remains relatively moderate, the SARB recognized the threat posed by the three-month annualized rate and acted prudently by raising the policy rate by 25 basis points to 7%.

Egypt

The latest available April 2026 figures for Egypt indicate that the annualized M3 growth rate has continued to hover around 19–21% y/y, well above Okware’s Optimal Growth Rate (OGR) of about 11.7%, a benchmark consistent with low and stable inflation. However, money growth slightly moderated in April to 19.3% y/y from 20.0% y/y in March 2026. This follows the March acceleration to 20.0% y/y (from 16.9% in February) and confirms that the re-acceleration signaled earlier has not yet been reversed.

The three-month annualized rate has remained elevated (around 30–35% in the most recent three-month window), reflecting a sharp pickup in the underlying momentum of money creation. The three-month annualized rate in April was 33.5%, a slight increase from 33.4% in March.

Nigeria

In April 2026, Nigeria’s broadly defined money supply continued to moderate, with the annualized M3 growth rate reaching 4.8% y/y, a further decline from 7.1% y/y recorded in March. The three-month annualized rate has remained subdued, although it picked up from the firm negative growth rates recorded in March to 5.4% y/y in April, which could signal some mild underlying momentum in money creation.

This growth rate in the quantity of money for Nigeria has continued to support necessary disinflation. Generally, after the dramatic spike in 2023–early 2024 in both the annualized M3 growth rate and the three-month annualized rate, both have continued their steady descent through 2025 into 2026.

UEMOA zone

As of the latest April 2026 figures, the annualized M2 growth rate stands at 19.6% y/y, slightly higher than March’s 18.1%. The three-month annualized rate has continued to rise moderately to 16.9% in April, a trend observed in the previous month at 13.5%, which was the lowest in the past four quarters ending in February. An important question is whether this could indicate another round of underlying monetary tightening for a region facing deflationary pressures at the moment.

Generally, growth in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA) remains welcome, as an important step toward reversing the current deflationary pressures facing the region. Both the annualized rate and the three-month annualized rate indicate that growth remains supportive. 

Uganda

This April marks half a year of above-trend growth in the quantity of money, broadly defined, in Uganda. The annualized growth rate of M3 eased slightly to 17.7% y/y from 17.8% in March. The quarterly growth rate for the quarter ending in April remained moderate at 8.5%, signaling an underlying monetary contraction. This moderation in the growth of the quantity of money is reflected in reduced monetary financing of the Government of Uganda's deficit. The Bank of Uganda's Net Claims on Government fell by nearly half, from UGX 4,096.50 billion to UGX 2,571.66 billion, in April. However, commercial bank holdings of government debt have picked up, reaching UGX 18,437.49 billion in April.

This moderation is welcome, but the expansion of bank balance sheets remains less than ideal. Private-sector credit growth slows to 9.2% y/y, down from 11.9% in March, with loans expanding even more slowly. Money growth is driven mainly by banks’ holdings of government securities and non-lending assets, while net foreign assets deteriorate. Although this supports spending, investment, asset prices, and high GDP growth of 8.5% y/y in Q2 FY2025/26, it is less efficient for money creation. Private-sector lending would better boost productive activity.

Overall, the current rate of broad money growth remains a tailwind for Uganda’s economy, but the Bank of Uganda should aim to shift the composition of bank assets toward private-sector claims. In short, the data and the chart show a healthy cooling of broad money growth after the earlier surge in Uganda.